Position Review: Running Backs

The following article was written by Bob Lung who has written for Fanball.com and now runs his own site called www.bigguyfantasysports.com. He is a fantasy football veteran who has developed a unique system that eliminates much of the luck factor in fantasy football. This site will be featuring periodic guest posts by Bob. They are well worth your time. - Jon

As always we will start with the first tier running backs ranked by their Quality Game Success Rate.

TIER ONE

Player Name	Total Points	Pts Rank	Total QG	Total GP	QG Success Rate
Adrian Peterson	284.50	2	15	16	94%
Chris Johnson	343.90	1	13	16	81%
Ray Rice	249.10	4	13	16	81%
Thomas Jones	230.00	5	13	16	81%
Ryan Grant	210.00	8	13	16	81%
Joseph Addai	198.50	9	12	15	80%

The top tier of consistent running backs for 2009 consists of running backs that had an 8o percent or higher QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate). What surprises many fantasy players who are new to the Quality Game Scores is the fact that the top six running backs are not also the top six overall fantasy points scorers. Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai ranked eighth and ninth overall, in at least 80 percent of their games they scored over the Quality Game Factor (9.34 fantasy points per game), they both averaged over 13 points per game played.

THE EXPECTED

Adrian Peterson was Mr. Consistency this season with a 94 percent QGSR. Now, here’s the funny part of this. Many fantasy experts called Peterson’s year a disappointment because of Favre “stealing” so many Red Zone touchdowns from Peterson this season.

Chris Johnson is the man that everyone was talking during the 2009 season. His No. 1 overall points victory by a 60 point margin over Peterson was the “water cooler” talk of the year. Johnson was a perfect 10 for 10 Quality Games over the last weeks of the season including the fantasy playoffs. He was expected to be a very good back but did anyone see him as the number one overall running back?

THE UNEXPECTED

Ray Rice was a highly touted running back out of college. However, there are always great college running backs coming into the league, but most do not end their first year as the No. 4 running back in overall points and with an 80 percent QGSR. Add the 12 rushing touchdowns that Willis McGahee “vultured” away from him, it’s almost scary how good he could be.

Thomas Jones was expected to step aside for the new era in the Jets running game. Instead, Leon Washington got hurt and Shonn Greene did little to move Thomas Jones out of the starting role. The off-season question will remain, “Is Jones done in New York?” (It is a different question since this article was written -- Jon) If he does move on to another club and it would not surprise me to see him flourish.

TIER TWO

Player Name	Total Points	Pts Rank	Total QG	Total GP	QG Success Rate
Frank Gore	228.60	6	11	14	79%
Ronnie Brown	125.65	33	7	9	78%
Cedric Benson	172.20	15	10	13	77%
Maurice Jones-Drew	271.50	3	12	16	75%
Steven Jackson	195.80	10	11	15	73%
Michael Turner	148.60	22	8	11	73%
Ladainian Tomlinson	158.40	19	10	14	71%
DeAngelo Williams	175.90	14	9	13	69%
Ricky Williams	214.50	7	11	16	69%

THE EXPECTED

Frank Gore was all over the fantasy experts’ boards ranking from sixth to fifteenth. Gore proved he belongs on the higher end by ranking sixth overall (even missing two games). He had an excellent 79 percent QGSR.

Maurice Jones-Drew ended third overall, which was not unexpected by most fantasy experts. His consistency was marginal at a 75 percent. This was his first full season without Fred Taylor, so we will give him a break. He should continue to be a stud for years to come.

While many would say that they did not expect Steven Jackson to end the season ranked tenth overall, I can honestly say that I did. With no other offensive weapons on the Rams team, even with love for Jackson as a player, I felt opposing defenses would key on him and there was no way he could end up in the top five or six as many projected. That said, if he is undervalued in your draft this year and you can get him as your No. 2 running back, do it!

THE UNEXPECTED

Injuries to Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams caused all three of these projected studs to disappoint their fantasy teams. The good news was that when they played their Success Rate was close to 70 percent or higher. Don’t hesitate to draft these players in 2010. All three should be undervalued due to their injury history.

Cedric Benson was barely even a quip on the radar prior to the fantasy drafts, but Benson exploded onto the fantasy world with seven out of eight Quality Games until an injury slowed him the rest of the season. He missed three games but was still ranked fifteenth overall and had a 77 percent QGSR. (He's top ten in 2010 -- Jon)

Ricky Williams was grossly undervalued in the preseason and for good reason. He has Ronnie Brown in front of him. However, Ricky proved his worth when he shared the field with Brown and even more so after Brown got hurt. He ended the season ranked seventh overall.

There were high expectations for LaDainian Tomlinson by myself and many others. However, after Week Nine, Tomlinson had only earned three Quality Games for the year and looked pretty bad doing it. But, something clicked in Week Ten and he earned seven Quality Games over the next eight weeks to end the season with a 71% QGSR. Not what was expected of him, but a nice comeback after such a horrible start.

TIER THREE

Player Name	Total Points	Pts Rank	Total QG	Total GP	QG Success Rate
Steve Slaton	122.40	35	7	11	64%
Marion Barber	155.30	21	9	15	60%
Pierre Thomas	156.50	20	8	14	57%
Rashard Mendenhall	181.90	13	9	16	56%
Knowshon Moreno	166.00	17	9	16	56%
Tim Hightower	146.60	24	9	16	56%
Carnell Williams	145.50	26	9	16	56%
Kevin Smith	143.60	27	7	13	54%
Jamaal Charles	186.70	12	8	15	53%
Laurence Maroney	135.60	30	8	15	53%
Jonathan Stewart	191.20	11	8	16	50%
Fred Jackson	170.65	16	8	16	50%
Matt Forte	161.00	18	7	16	44%

Tier Three consists of several different scenarios. We have Steve Slaton and Marion Barber at the top of this tier and Matt Forte at the bottom of this tier. These players were ranked in the top 15 during the preseason. However, injuries and perhaps the sophomore jinx, these two just could not get going.

Another group in this tier could very well be the future stars at the running back position. Pierre Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles and Fred Jackson are all players to keep an eye on leading into the 2010 season.

Also in this tier are washed-up players like Laurence Maroney and Carnell Williams. They may have a few good games left, but they’re too inconsistent to want on a fantasy roster.

If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me your questions to bob@bigguyfantasysports.com or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.

WR Steve Smith Breaks His Arm

Bad news for Carolina Panther fans coming from MSNBC.com:

Panthers WR Steve Smith fractured his left arm playing flag football over the weekend and is in danger missing all of training camp. He had surgery Sunday. Smith fractured the same arm he broke in Week 16 of last season. Broken arms often make for clean recoveries, but it becomes a bigger concern when the patient suffers repeated fractures, as Bengals S Roy Williams can attest. We liked Smith's chances of having a big bounce-back season with Jake Delhomme gone, but expectations now have to be scaled back. Promising rookie Armanti Edwards should get more practice reps.

Armanti Edwards was a college quarterback who has been moved to wide receiver. He has very good speed and according to most scouting reports is a very physical player. The Panthers are very into his talent and believe he can be a playmaker for them in the near future.

The Rivals.com Scouting Report:

Edwards is a limited quarterback prospect who lacks the size and overall arm strength to make it as a pocket passer at the next level. He possesses a wind-up to his release and isn't technically sound in any area of the game. But he's a gifted athlete who showcases the initial burst and lateral agility to make defenders miss in the open field and can create with the ball in his hands. He's a lot more physical than his body would suggest and he has the ability to stay on his feet to control and accelerate into the open field. He possesses good straight-line speed in the open field but is more quick than fast. Edwards will need to make the move to wildcat QB or wideout at the next level, but he has the athletic ability to get a shot in a training camp.

Remembering My Worst Fantasy Football Mistakes

I don’t think I’m bragging when I say that I have made just about every mistake a fantasy football owner can make. I’ve been the no-show at a draft that allowed friends or a computer to make my picks. I’ve been unprepared, coming to a draft without even a fantasy magazine. I’ve stupidly drafted quarterbacks in the first two rounds. Tonight, because I’m such a great guy (and I wanna win) I’m going to share with you the five worst mistakes I’ve made as a fantasy owner.

5) Not Knowing the Scoring Rules – Several years ago I was in a league that had some unusual scoring rules. This league wanted to make quarterbacks more valuable so they made passing touchdowns worth ten points and started two QBs. I went with my usual running back heavy strategy and snickered ignorantly as the best quarterbacks flew off the board in the first few rounds. My Tom Brady and Michael Vick duo would have been fine in a lot of leagues but in this one it killed me. Most rule variations aren’t that extreme but it illustrates just how important it is to know how points are scored in your league.

4) Following the “Draft Running Backs Early Strategy” to a Fault – A few years ago I had the good fortune of drafting Shaun Alexander in the first round (he was worth it back then). I cringed when 15 running backs went in the next 18 picks. My next two picks were DeShaun Foster and Kevin Jones. I could have had Peyton Manning with either pick but I came into the draft knowing I wouldn’t select a quarterback until round five or six. While it is a solid strategy to select running backs in the first three rounds you have to be flexible enough to take advantage when an elite player slips too far.

3) Panicking after the First Game or Two – After drafting a nice team I thought for sure I’d have a perfect season if no one got hurt. I was beaten in my first three games and lost my mind. I started paying far too much attention to match-ups and did silly things like start Eddie Kennison over Torry Holt. My panic turned a team that should have contended for the title into an also ran. Patience is extremely important in a fantasy football season. Don’t let bad luck or slow starts ruin your entire year.

2) Leaving My Cell Phone on – I was half way through a draft when my cell phone started to vibrate across my desk. The rest of my league was bidding on someone I had no interest in so I picked up my phone just to see who was calling. It was this girl I had asked out a dozen times only to be denied in dozens of creative ways. I took the call and made a date for that night. It was bad enough that I allowed myself to be distracted in the middle of an auction but I had another auction early the next morning. Of course I got drunk and stayed out with her until 6am. Two drafts ruined with one phone call.

1) Ignoring My Best Instincts – Every year I expend a lot of effort researching players. I come up with a solid strategy and assign a value to every eligible player. But far too many times I’ve allowed all this work to go to waste. I’ve let fear of ridicule or embarrassment keep me from drafting to the best of my ability. I think this is by far the worst mistake a fantasy football owner can make. If your months of research tells you that Ronnie Brown is going to be the top running back of 2006 don’t be afraid to pick him with the #6 overall pick even if the consensus says he’s #10. If Roy Williams is the most valuable player on your list in the third round don’t skip him to pick a lesser player. Of course you won’t always make the right choices but you’ll feel lots better if your risks pan out than you will always making the safe pick and finishing fourth. If it doesn’t work they can’t eat you.

Quality Game Score - 2009 Position Reviews Part Two

The following article was written by Bob Lung who has written for Fanball.com and now runs his own site called www.bigguyfantasysports.com. He is a fantasy football veteran who has developed a unique system that eliminates much of the luck factor in fantasy football. This site will be featuring periodic guest posts by Bob. They are well worth your time.

- Jon

The 2010 fantasy football season is quickly approaching, so let us take some time to review this past season and see just how consistent your fantasy players were.

Many times throughout my 25 years in fantasy football, I have heard owners complain that their team was in the top three or four in scoring, but did not make the playoffs. This is why I created the Quality Game Scores concept. I wanted to identify those players who were not only good (in total fantasy points), but consistently good.

We will start with the top 25 quarterbacks ranked by total Quality Games earned.

Player Name	Total Points	Avg Points	Total QG	Total GP	QG Percent
Aaron Rodgers	391.10	1	14	16	88%
Peyton Manning	339.70	4	14	16	88%
Drew Brees	353.70	2	13	15	87%
Matt Schaub	343.60	3	12	16	75%
Tony Romo	331.65	6	12	16	75%
Philip Rivers	323.70	9	12	16	75%
Ben Roethlisberger	325.30	8	11	15	73%
Tom Brady	327.30	7	11	16	69%
Eli Manning	293.55	10	11	16	69%
Kurt Warner	276.90	13	10	15	67%
Brett Favre	333.80	5	10	16	63%
Kyle Orton	267.20	16	10	16	63%
Donovan McNabb	278.75	12	9	14	64%
David Garrard	272.15	15	9	16	56%
Jay Cutler	287.50	11	8	16	50%
Carson Palmer	251.00	18	8	16	50%
Matt Ryan	228.70	19	7	14	50%
Jason Campbell	272.50	14	7	16	44%
Joe Flacco	256.85	17	7	16	44%
Matt Hasselbeck	211.35	20	6	14	43%
Matt Cassel	210.80	21	6	15	40%
Alex Smith	181.60	23	5	11	45%
Vince Young	165.05	26	5	12	42%
Chad Henne	187.10	22	5	14	36%
Matthew Stafford	167.15	25	4	10	40%

THE EXPECTED

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees at No. 2 and No. 3 respectively were obviously expected. Both headed into the season as the top two fantasy quarterbacks. Peyton was perfect in Quality Games all season through Week 15 and then due to the Colts management “protection plan” in the last two weeks, he missed earning a Quality Game in each one. Brees was solid most of the season, though he did slack off near the end of the year, but still earned a Quality Game in Week 17.

Aaron Rodgers was expected to be a top fantasy quarterback. In fact, I predicted he would be a top three quarterback. Would have I bet on my house on him being at the top in overall fantasy points by almost 40 points over Brees and 50 points over Manning and be tied as the top Quality Game earner with 14 QG’s, probably not. What is the main difference between Rodgers and these two? It was his feet! Rodgers had 304 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. Brees had 34 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Manning had negative 13 yards rushing and zero rushing touchdowns. Case closed.

THE UNEXPECTED

The unexpected performances start with Matt Schaub. I pat myself on the back because I did believe that if Schaub played all 16 games he would make the top six fantasy quarterbacks. So first, Schaub did indeed play all 16 games. Second, Schaub ended the season as the No. 3 overall quarterback in fantasy points and had the second highest number of Quality Games earned with 13. Again, I predicted good, but not that good. Can he do it again in 2010? Tough call, I am predicting no, but I hope I am wrong.

The “roller coaster ride” known as Brett Favre had Vikings fans and fantasy owners in a tizzy all season. It was unexpected that he would play for the Vikings. He did. He was not expected to be good. He was, as he ranked fifth overall in fantasy points. However, where he killed fantasy teams was with his inconsistency. He only earned 10 Quality Games, but so did Kyle Orton and he was ranked 16^th! You see my point. His 63 percent Quality Game Success Rate was awful for someone who ranked fifth overall.

Another disappointing unexpected in 2009 was Phillip Rivers. He ranked in many experts’ top five for 2009 and while the Chargers as a team did well, Rivers ended the season ranked as the ninth best quarterback in total fantasy points. At least Rivers did not have the high expectations Tom Brady did. Brady, coming back from missing all but a few minutes of the 2008 season, was ranked in the top five by most experts. He finished the year ranked seventh overall. However, Brady’s inconsistency killed many fantasy teams who drafted him in the first two or three rounds. Most of us expected better than a 69 percent success rate from the Patriots QB.

An unexpectedly good performance came from Tony Romo. This season he ranked sixth overall and had a 75 percent success rate. Many experts had placed Tony out of the top ten and occasionally outside of the top fifteen. They assumed Romo would not be the same when Terrell Owens (and Jessica Simpson) left town. They were wrong.

Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t ranked in the top ten during the preseason and yet, even though he missed a game due to injury, he ended the season ranked eighth overall and earned a 73% success rate. He is one to keep an eye on going into next season.

Swinging back to the bad side of unexpected, Kurt Warner had some small injuries and a productive running game in Arizona and that held back to ranking only 13^th overall and earning a 67% success rate. After a top five finish last year, this lack of production might have him a little more “sleeper-esque” had he not retired.

Here is a quickie for you. Donovan McNabb did not play a full 16 game season again. For the love of whomever, please do not draft him ever in your fantasy leagues. He just cannot stay healthy.

I am saving my last unexpected for the Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton combo. The off-season trade had many fantasy experts high on Cutler and the Bears and down on Orton and the Broncos offense. While neither of them impressed anyone by the end of the season, Cutler did prove that he is just as inconsistent in Chicago as he was in Denver by ranking 11^th overall and only having a 50% success rate. Orton proved that he is not a fantasy stud, but he is consistent as he earned two more Quality Games than Cutler, but only ranked 16^th overall.

Well, there is your Quality Game (consistency rankings) for the quarterbacks in 2009. If you did not make the playoffs and you had Brett Favre or Tom Brady on your team and cannot understand why, I hope this helped clear things up. If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me your questions to bob@bigguyfantasysports.com or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.