Saturday, June 12, 2010

Quality Game Score - 2009 Position Reviews Part Two

The following article was written by Bob Lung who has written for Fanball.com and now runs his own site called www.bigguyfantasysports.com. He is a fantasy football veteran who has developed a unique system that eliminates much of the luck factor in fantasy football. This site will be featuring periodic guest posts by Bob. They are well worth your time.


- Jon


The 2010 fantasy football season is quickly approaching, so let us take some time to review this past season and see just how consistent your fantasy players were.


Many times throughout my 25 years in fantasy football, I have heard owners complain that their team was in the top three or four in scoring, but did not make the playoffs. This is why I created the Quality Game Scores concept. I wanted to identify those players who were not only good (in total fantasy points), but consistently good.


We will start with the top 25 quarterbacks ranked by total Quality Games earned.


Player Name

Total Points

Avg Points

Total QG

Total GP

QG Percent

Aaron Rodgers

391.10

1

14

16

88%

Peyton Manning

339.70

4

14

16

88%

Drew Brees

353.70

2

13

15

87%

Matt Schaub

343.60

3

12

16

75%

Tony Romo

331.65

6

12

16

75%

Philip Rivers

323.70

9

12

16

75%

Ben Roethlisberger

325.30

8

11

15

73%

Tom Brady

327.30

7

11

16

69%

Eli Manning

293.55

10

11

16

69%

Kurt Warner

276.90

13

10

15

67%

Brett Favre

333.80

5

10

16

63%

Kyle Orton

267.20

16

10

16

63%

Donovan McNabb

278.75

12

9

14

64%

David Garrard

272.15

15

9

16

56%

Jay Cutler

287.50

11

8

16

50%

Carson Palmer

251.00

18

8

16

50%

Matt Ryan

228.70

19

7

14

50%

Jason Campbell

272.50

14

7

16

44%

Joe Flacco

256.85

17

7

16

44%

Matt Hasselbeck

211.35

20

6

14

43%

Matt Cassel

210.80

21

6

15

40%

Alex Smith

181.60

23

5

11

45%

Vince Young

165.05

26

5

12

42%

Chad Henne

187.10

22

5

14

36%

Matthew Stafford

167.15

25

4

10

40%


THE EXPECTED

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees at No. 2 and No. 3 respectively were obviously expected. Both headed into the season as the top two fantasy quarterbacks. Peyton was perfect in Quality Games all season through Week 15 and then due to the Colts management “protection plan” in the last two weeks, he missed earning a Quality Game in each one. Brees was solid most of the season, though he did slack off near the end of the year, but still earned a Quality Game in Week 17.


Aaron Rodgers was expected to be a top fantasy quarterback. In fact, I predicted he would be a top three quarterback. Would have I bet on my house on him being at the top in overall fantasy points by almost 40 points over Brees and 50 points over Manning and be tied as the top Quality Game earner with 14 QG’s, probably not. What is the main difference between Rodgers and these two? It was his feet! Rodgers had 304 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. Brees had 34 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Manning had negative 13 yards rushing and zero rushing touchdowns. Case closed.


THE UNEXPECTED

The unexpected performances start with Matt Schaub. I pat myself on the back because I did believe that if Schaub played all 16 games he would make the top six fantasy quarterbacks. So first, Schaub did indeed play all 16 games. Second, Schaub ended the season as the No. 3 overall quarterback in fantasy points and had the second highest number of Quality Games earned with 13. Again, I predicted good, but not that good. Can he do it again in 2010? Tough call, I am predicting no, but I hope I am wrong.


The “roller coaster ride” known as Brett Favre had Vikings fans and fantasy owners in a tizzy all season. It was unexpected that he would play for the Vikings. He did. He was not expected to be good. He was, as he ranked fifth overall in fantasy points. However, where he killed fantasy teams was with his inconsistency. He only earned 10 Quality Games, but so did Kyle Orton and he was ranked 16th! You see my point. His 63 percent Quality Game Success Rate was awful for someone who ranked fifth overall.


Another disappointing unexpected in 2009 was Phillip Rivers. He ranked in many experts’ top five for 2009 and while the Chargers as a team did well, Rivers ended the season ranked as the ninth best quarterback in total fantasy points. At least Rivers did not have the high expectations Tom Brady did. Brady, coming back from missing all but a few minutes of the 2008 season, was ranked in the top five by most experts. He finished the year ranked seventh overall. However, Brady’s inconsistency killed many fantasy teams who drafted him in the first two or three rounds. Most of us expected better than a 69 percent success rate from the Patriots QB.


An unexpectedly good performance came from Tony Romo. This season he ranked sixth overall and had a 75 percent success rate. Many experts had placed Tony out of the top ten and occasionally outside of the top fifteen. They assumed Romo would not be the same when Terrell Owens (and Jessica Simpson) left town. They were wrong.


Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t ranked in the top ten during the preseason and yet, even though he missed a game due to injury, he ended the season ranked eighth overall and earned a 73% success rate. He is one to keep an eye on going into next season.


Swinging back to the bad side of unexpected, Kurt Warner had some small injuries and a productive running game in Arizona and that held back to ranking only 13th overall and earning a 67% success rate. After a top five finish last year, this lack of production might have him a little more “sleeper-esque” had he not retired.


Here is a quickie for you. Donovan McNabb did not play a full 16 game season again. For the love of whomever, please do not draft him ever in your fantasy leagues. He just cannot stay healthy.


I am saving my last unexpected for the Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton combo. The off-season trade had many fantasy experts high on Cutler and the Bears and down on Orton and the Broncos offense. While neither of them impressed anyone by the end of the season, Cutler did prove that he is just as inconsistent in Chicago as he was in Denver by ranking 11th overall and only having a 50% success rate. Orton proved that he is not a fantasy stud, but he is consistent as he earned two more Quality Games than Cutler, but only ranked 16th overall.


Well, there is your Quality Game (consistency rankings) for the quarterbacks in 2009. If you did not make the playoffs and you had Brett Favre or Tom Brady on your team and cannot understand why, I hope this helped clear things up. If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me your questions to bob@bigguyfantasysports.com or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.

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