Fantasy Football Insider: Who could be the Top Fantasy Running Backs in 2011?

The NFL lockout continues as the 2011 NFL Draft comes to a close and we are all now stuck in a state of “football limbo”. There won’t be much movement at all now in the NFL as we wait for things to get settled so teams are going to remain pretty much the same way that the did last year until all of this is settled.

With NFL teams taking to the air much more now than they have in the past it’s safe to say that the role of the running back on an NFL team has diminished. We have seen this happen over the past few years but fantasy football fans should not let themselves worry about the production from running backs.

Running backs are an important part of any fantasy roster and can have huge games which allow fantasy owners to win games and win their leagues.

Some of the top fantasy football running backs during the 2010 season include Houston’s Arian Foster, Cleveland’s Peyton Hills and Tennessee’s Chris Johnson and these players promise to have good seasons in 2011.

But will they be ready for the 2011 season thanks to the lockout? Will the 2011 season even be ready for them?

Let’s assume that the season is going to go on as normal? Which players will be the top running backs in 2011?

We will find out as we look at the top five fantasy running backs heading into the 2011 season.

(Note: This is in no particular order).

1. Chris Johnson-Tennessee Titans-Tennessee’s quarterback situation is going to a little tenuous in 2011 so they will probably try to rely on Johnson much more this coming season. This means big dividends for fantasy football owners that pick Johnson. If you can get him early take him.

2. Peyton Hillis-Cleveland Browns-The Browns will have quarterback Colt McCoy starting to open the season and as they try to ease him into his starting role it’s possible that they could use the running game to help take some of the pressure off of McCoy. Hillis is now a proven running back and will help the Browns have success on the ground next year.

3. Matt Forte-Chicago Bears-The Bears ended up having a lot of success on offense, especially in the second half of the season and he’s a valuable dual threat both running the ball and catching it. The Bears will continue to use him often as a key part of their offense and he should see some strong numbers again in 2011.

4. Adrian Peterson-Minnesota Vikings-Peterson is always an ideal pickup in any fantasy football season and he might be called upon early and often if the Vikings have rookie Christian Ponder as their starting quarterback. Look for him to have a big season in 2011 as long as he can stay healthy and hold onto the ball.

5. Darren McFadden-Oakland Raiders-After a long wait Raiders fans and those fantasy football owners that selected him got what they wanted out of McFadden and being that they have the head coach that was last year’s offensive coordinator coming back he may get even more touches this season and could do even better than he did last season.

There could be a couple rookie running backs that might be worth a mid round look. Guys like New Orleans Saints Mark Ingram and Detroit’s Mikel Leshoure could have good seasons. Keep an eye on these guys as the season progresses as they might be worth a longer look.

Position Review: Running Backs

The following article was written by Bob Lung who has written for Fanball.com and now runs his own site called www.bigguyfantasysports.com. He is a fantasy football veteran who has developed a unique system that eliminates much of the luck factor in fantasy football. This site will be featuring periodic guest posts by Bob. They are well worth your time. - Jon

As always we will start with the first tier running backs ranked by their Quality Game Success Rate.

TIER ONE

Player Name	Total Points	Pts Rank	Total QG	Total GP	QG Success Rate
Adrian Peterson	284.50	2	15	16	94%
Chris Johnson	343.90	1	13	16	81%
Ray Rice	249.10	4	13	16	81%
Thomas Jones	230.00	5	13	16	81%
Ryan Grant	210.00	8	13	16	81%
Joseph Addai	198.50	9	12	15	80%

The top tier of consistent running backs for 2009 consists of running backs that had an 8o percent or higher QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate). What surprises many fantasy players who are new to the Quality Game Scores is the fact that the top six running backs are not also the top six overall fantasy points scorers. Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai ranked eighth and ninth overall, in at least 80 percent of their games they scored over the Quality Game Factor (9.34 fantasy points per game), they both averaged over 13 points per game played.

THE EXPECTED

Adrian Peterson was Mr. Consistency this season with a 94 percent QGSR. Now, here’s the funny part of this. Many fantasy experts called Peterson’s year a disappointment because of Favre “stealing” so many Red Zone touchdowns from Peterson this season.

Chris Johnson is the man that everyone was talking during the 2009 season. His No. 1 overall points victory by a 60 point margin over Peterson was the “water cooler” talk of the year. Johnson was a perfect 10 for 10 Quality Games over the last weeks of the season including the fantasy playoffs. He was expected to be a very good back but did anyone see him as the number one overall running back?

THE UNEXPECTED

Ray Rice was a highly touted running back out of college. However, there are always great college running backs coming into the league, but most do not end their first year as the No. 4 running back in overall points and with an 80 percent QGSR. Add the 12 rushing touchdowns that Willis McGahee “vultured” away from him, it’s almost scary how good he could be.

Thomas Jones was expected to step aside for the new era in the Jets running game. Instead, Leon Washington got hurt and Shonn Greene did little to move Thomas Jones out of the starting role. The off-season question will remain, “Is Jones done in New York?” (It is a different question since this article was written -- Jon) If he does move on to another club and it would not surprise me to see him flourish.

TIER TWO

Player Name	Total Points	Pts Rank	Total QG	Total GP	QG Success Rate
Frank Gore	228.60	6	11	14	79%
Ronnie Brown	125.65	33	7	9	78%
Cedric Benson	172.20	15	10	13	77%
Maurice Jones-Drew	271.50	3	12	16	75%
Steven Jackson	195.80	10	11	15	73%
Michael Turner	148.60	22	8	11	73%
Ladainian Tomlinson	158.40	19	10	14	71%
DeAngelo Williams	175.90	14	9	13	69%
Ricky Williams	214.50	7	11	16	69%

THE EXPECTED

Frank Gore was all over the fantasy experts’ boards ranking from sixth to fifteenth. Gore proved he belongs on the higher end by ranking sixth overall (even missing two games). He had an excellent 79 percent QGSR.

Maurice Jones-Drew ended third overall, which was not unexpected by most fantasy experts. His consistency was marginal at a 75 percent. This was his first full season without Fred Taylor, so we will give him a break. He should continue to be a stud for years to come.

While many would say that they did not expect Steven Jackson to end the season ranked tenth overall, I can honestly say that I did. With no other offensive weapons on the Rams team, even with love for Jackson as a player, I felt opposing defenses would key on him and there was no way he could end up in the top five or six as many projected. That said, if he is undervalued in your draft this year and you can get him as your No. 2 running back, do it!

THE UNEXPECTED

Injuries to Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams caused all three of these projected studs to disappoint their fantasy teams. The good news was that when they played their Success Rate was close to 70 percent or higher. Don’t hesitate to draft these players in 2010. All three should be undervalued due to their injury history.

Cedric Benson was barely even a quip on the radar prior to the fantasy drafts, but Benson exploded onto the fantasy world with seven out of eight Quality Games until an injury slowed him the rest of the season. He missed three games but was still ranked fifteenth overall and had a 77 percent QGSR. (He's top ten in 2010 -- Jon)

Ricky Williams was grossly undervalued in the preseason and for good reason. He has Ronnie Brown in front of him. However, Ricky proved his worth when he shared the field with Brown and even more so after Brown got hurt. He ended the season ranked seventh overall.

There were high expectations for LaDainian Tomlinson by myself and many others. However, after Week Nine, Tomlinson had only earned three Quality Games for the year and looked pretty bad doing it. But, something clicked in Week Ten and he earned seven Quality Games over the next eight weeks to end the season with a 71% QGSR. Not what was expected of him, but a nice comeback after such a horrible start.

TIER THREE

Player Name	Total Points	Pts Rank	Total QG	Total GP	QG Success Rate
Steve Slaton	122.40	35	7	11	64%
Marion Barber	155.30	21	9	15	60%
Pierre Thomas	156.50	20	8	14	57%
Rashard Mendenhall	181.90	13	9	16	56%
Knowshon Moreno	166.00	17	9	16	56%
Tim Hightower	146.60	24	9	16	56%
Carnell Williams	145.50	26	9	16	56%
Kevin Smith	143.60	27	7	13	54%
Jamaal Charles	186.70	12	8	15	53%
Laurence Maroney	135.60	30	8	15	53%
Jonathan Stewart	191.20	11	8	16	50%
Fred Jackson	170.65	16	8	16	50%
Matt Forte	161.00	18	7	16	44%

Tier Three consists of several different scenarios. We have Steve Slaton and Marion Barber at the top of this tier and Matt Forte at the bottom of this tier. These players were ranked in the top 15 during the preseason. However, injuries and perhaps the sophomore jinx, these two just could not get going.

Another group in this tier could very well be the future stars at the running back position. Pierre Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles and Fred Jackson are all players to keep an eye on leading into the 2010 season.

Also in this tier are washed-up players like Laurence Maroney and Carnell Williams. They may have a few good games left, but they’re too inconsistent to want on a fantasy roster.

If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me your questions to bob@bigguyfantasysports.com or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.