Sunday, July 25, 2010

Tony Romo Profile by Bob Lung

The following article was written by Bob Lung who has written for Fanball.com and now runs his own site called www.bigguyfantasysports.com. He is a fantasy football veteran who has developed a unique system that eliminates much of the luck factor in fantasy football. This site will be featuring periodic guest posts by Bob. They are well worth your time. - Jon

TONY ROMO – CONSISTENCY PROFILE

Tony Romo has been on a roller-coaster ride in total points rank over the past 3 years, but he's been consistently in the top 10 when it comes to his Quality Games earned over the past 3 seasons.

3 YEAR HISTORY

Romo's been ranked second and fourth two out of the last three years and has placed in the top 10 all three years. On the negative side, he has struggled a tad with injuries over the past two years by not playing in a full season either year. As you will see below in the 2010 Historical Forecast, Tony is primed for a big season if he plays in a full season.



Total FP

FPPG

RANK

QG

GP

QSR

RANK

Tony Romo

2007

358.75

22.42

2

14

16

88%

2


2008

259.50

19.96

11

9

13

69%

7


2009

331.65

22.11

6

12

15

80%

4

CONSISTENCY VS DEFENSES

The last three years, Romo has performed very well against at home against all levels of defenses. His 83% Quality Success Rate (QSR) at home is certainly one of the top quarterback ratings in the NFL. However, the yellow highlight shows Tony's one weakness (well, outside of big-breasted stupid blonde chicks) and that's his performance Away at Good Defenses. The 14.66 fantasy points per game (FPG) in nine games is almost 25% below his overall Away FPG and 30% below his Overall FPG. However, even worse is his horrible QSR of 33%! I'd highly recommend staying away from Tony during the 2010 season during Weeks 1, 6 and 9.


Good Defenses (Top 10)

Average Defenses

Bad Defenses (Bottom 10)

Total


FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

Home

21.31

7

10

70%

23.55

9

10

90%

25.70

3

3

100%

22.86

19

23

83%

Away

14.66

3

9

33%

21.95

4

5

80%

22.83

8

8

100%

19.29

15

22

68%













Total

21.11

34

45

76%

2010 HISTORICAL FORECAST

This report takes the past three years historical data and forecasts their 2010 season fantasy points and Quality Games Earned (QGE). As I mentioned above, based on this historical data, Tony Romo's 2010 season calculates out to 348.81 points and 13 Quality Games Earned. The 348.81 points would have placed him in third place overall in 2009 and 13 Quality Games would have tied him for second in consistency. Based on the 2010 schedule and Romo's impressive team surrounding him, he should be in for a great season!





ACTUAL

LOCATION/DEFENSE

TOTAL

17.03

WEEK


H/A

DEF

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

QGE

1

@Was

A

GOOD

10.70

1

3

33%

14.66

3

9

33%

13.67

4

12

33%

0

2

Chi

H

AVG

23.45

1

1

100%

23.55

9

10

90%

23.54

10

11

91%

1

3

@Hou

A

AVG

-

-

-

-

21.95

4

5

80%

21.95

4

5

80%

1

4

BYE
















5

Ten

H

BAD

-

-

-

-

25.70

3

3

100%

25.70

3

3

100%

1

6

@Min

A

GOOD

17.25

1

1

100%

14.66

3

9

33%

14.92

4

10

40%

0

7

NYG

H

AVG

24.63

2

3

67%

23.55

9

10

90%

23.80

11

13

85%

1

8

Jac

H

BAD

-

-

-

-

25.70

3

3

100%

25.70

3

3

100%

1

9

@GB

A

GOOD

20.77

1

3

33%

14.66

3

9

33%

16.19

4

12

33%

0

10

@NYG

A

AVG

29.49

2

2

100%

21.95

4

5

80%

24.10

6

7

86%

1

11

Det

H

BAD

24.60

1

1

100%

25.70

3

3

100%

25.43

4

4

100%

1

12

NO

H

BAD

21.70

1

1

100%

25.70

3

3

100%

24.70

4

4

100%

1

13

@Ind

A

AVG

-

-

-

-

21.95

4

5

80%

21.95

4

5

80%

1

14

Phi

H

AVG

18.88

2

3

67%

23.55

9

10

90%

22.47

11

13

85%

1

15

Was

H

GOOD

22.62

2

3

67%

21.31

7

10

70%

21.61

9

13

69%

1

16

@Ari

A

AVG

27.05

1

1

100%

21.95

4

5

80%

22.80

5

6

83%

1

17

@Phi

A

AVG

17.5

2

3

67%

21.95

4

5

80%

20.28

6

8

75%

1






























348.81

92

129

71%

13

Questions or comments? Feel free to visit www.bigguyfantasysports.com or email me at bob@bigguyfantasysports.com and I’ll be more than happy to answer your questions.

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