Tony Romo Profile by Bob Lung

The following article was written by Bob Lung who has written for Fanball.com and now runs his own site called www.bigguyfantasysports.com. He is a fantasy football veteran who has developed a unique system that eliminates much of the luck factor in fantasy football. This site will be featuring periodic guest posts by Bob. They are well worth your time. - Jon

TONY ROMO – CONSISTENCY PROFILE

Tony Romo has been on a roller-coaster ride in total points rank over the past 3 years, but he's been consistently in the top 10 when it comes to his Quality Games earned over the past 3 seasons.

3 YEAR HISTORY

Romo's been ranked second and fourth two out of the last three years and has placed in the top 10 all three years. On the negative side, he has struggled a tad with injuries over the past two years by not playing in a full season either year. As you will see below in the 2010 Historical Forecast, Tony is primed for a big season if he plays in a full season.

		Total FP	FPPG	RANK	QG	GP	QSR	RANK
Tony Romo	2007	358.75	22.42	2	14	16	88%	2
	2008	259.50	19.96	11	9	13	69%	7
	2009	331.65	22.11	6	12	15	80%	4

CONSISTENCY VS DEFENSES

The last three years, Romo has performed very well against at home against all levels of defenses. His 83% Quality Success Rate (QSR) at home is certainly one of the top quarterback ratings in the NFL. However, the yellow highlight shows Tony's one weakness (well, outside of big-breasted stupid blonde chicks) and that's his performance Away at Good Defenses. The 14.66 fantasy points per game (FPG) in nine games is almost 25% below his overall Away FPG and 30% below his Overall FPG. However, even worse is his horrible QSR of 33%! I'd highly recommend staying away from Tony during the 2010 season during Weeks 1, 6 and 9.

	Good Defenses (Top 10)				Average Defenses				Bad Defenses (Bottom 10)				Total
	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR
Home	21.31	7	10	70%	23.55	9	10	90%	25.70	3	3	100%	22.86	19	23	83%
Away	14.66	3	9	33%	21.95	4	5	80%	22.83	8	8	100%	19.29	15	22	68%
												Total	21.11	34	45	76%

2010 HISTORICAL FORECAST

This report takes the past three years historical data and forecasts their 2010 season fantasy points and Quality Games Earned (QGE). As I mentioned above, based on this historical data, Tony Romo's 2010 season calculates out to 348.81 points and 13 Quality Games Earned. The 348.81 points would have placed him in third place overall in 2009 and 13 Quality Games would have tied him for second in consistency. Based on the 2010 schedule and Romo's impressive team surrounding him, he should be in for a great season!

				ACTUAL				LOCATION/DEFENSE				TOTAL				17.03
WEEK		H/A	DEF	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	QGE
1	@Was	A	GOOD	10.70	1	3	33%	14.66	3	9	33%	13.67	4	12	33%	0
2	Chi	H	AVG	23.45	1	1	100%	23.55	9	10	90%	23.54	10	11	91%	1
3	@Hou	A	AVG	-	-	-	-	21.95	4	5	80%	21.95	4	5	80%	1
4	BYE
5	Ten	H	BAD	-	-	-	-	25.70	3	3	100%	25.70	3	3	100%	1
6	@Min	A	GOOD	17.25	1	1	100%	14.66	3	9	33%	14.92	4	10	40%	0
7	NYG	H	AVG	24.63	2	3	67%	23.55	9	10	90%	23.80	11	13	85%	1
8	Jac	H	BAD	-	-	-	-	25.70	3	3	100%	25.70	3	3	100%	1
9	@GB	A	GOOD	20.77	1	3	33%	14.66	3	9	33%	16.19	4	12	33%	0
10	@NYG	A	AVG	29.49	2	2	100%	21.95	4	5	80%	24.10	6	7	86%	1
11	Det	H	BAD	24.60	1	1	100%	25.70	3	3	100%	25.43	4	4	100%	1
12	NO	H	BAD	21.70	1	1	100%	25.70	3	3	100%	24.70	4	4	100%	1
13	@Ind	A	AVG	-	-	-	-	21.95	4	5	80%	21.95	4	5	80%	1
14	Phi	H	AVG	18.88	2	3	67%	23.55	9	10	90%	22.47	11	13	85%	1
15	Was	H	GOOD	22.62	2	3	67%	21.31	7	10	70%	21.61	9	13	69%	1
16	@Ari	A	AVG	27.05	1	1	100%	21.95	4	5	80%	22.80	5	6	83%	1
17	@Phi	A	AVG	17.5	2	3	67%	21.95	4	5	80%	20.28	6	8	75%	1
												348.81	92	129	71%	13

Questions or comments? Feel free to visit www.bigguyfantasysports.com or email me at bob@bigguyfantasysports.com and I’ll be more than happy to answer your questions.