Drew Brees Profile by Bob Lung

The following article was written by Bob Lung who has written for Fanball.com and now runs his own site called www.bigguyfantasysports.com. He is a fantasy football veteran who has developed a unique system that eliminates much of the luck factor in fantasy football. This site will be featuring periodic guest posts by Bob. They are well worth your time. - Jon

DREW BREES – CONSISTENCY PROFILE

Drew Brees has been the overall fantasy points and consistency champ for the past two years combined. He and the New Orleans Saints offense certainly show no signs of slowing down in 2010.

3 YEAR HISTORY

Drew Brees is one of the few quarterbacks that I would ever consider drafting in the first round. The reason is obvious below based on Drew's three year rankings in both overall points and consistency rankings. He's never been out of the top four in overall points and has been in the top three the past two years in consistency.

		Total FP	FPPG	RANK	QG	GP	QSR	RANK
Drew Brees	2007	322.60	20.16	4	12	16	75%	6
	2008	371.35	23.21	1	14	16	88%	1
	2009	353.70	23.58	2	13	15	87%	3

CONSISTENCY VERSUS DEFENSES

The highlighted are shows that maybe Drew Brees isn't the "Superman" that he looks in the overall numbers above. While Drew destroys the Average and Bad defenses in the NFL, he struggles with consistency versus the Good defenses, both at Home and Away. Now, before you bench against good defenses, remember that a Quality Game is earned at 17.03 fantasy points, so his average of 16.19 doesn't necessarily warrant a panic. He's a stud! You start him every week regardless. This just shows that he's human.

	Good Defenses (Top 10)				Average Defenses				Bad Defenses (Bottom 10)				Total
	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR
Home	16.19	5	8	63%	27.8	9	10	90%	25.18	6	6	100%	23.29	20	24	83%
Away	17.09	3	5	60%	20.1	5	7	71%	23.86	11	11	100%	21.25	19	23	83%
												Total	22.29	39	47	83%

2010 HISTORICAL FORECAST

The forecast certainly shows a consistent year with 14 Quality Games Earned for an 88% Quality Success Rate (QSR). However, his 330.57 points puts him well below his 353.70 points last season. I'm sure the Saints will get a first place (i.e. tougher) schedule in 2010, but I'm still high on Brees and wouldn't hold back from drafting him as one of the top three quarterbacks in 2010. Now, that being said, you will see that I'm usually not a big fan of drafting a top quarterback, because I usually wait for better values in the fifth or sixth round after getting my two RB's and three WR's.

				ACTUAL				LOCATION/DEFENSE				TOTAL				17.03
WEEK		H/A	DEF	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	QGE
1	Min	H	GOOD	18.10	1	1	100%	16.19	5	8	63%	16.40	6	9	67%	0
2	@SF	A	AVG	30.93	2	2	100%	20.11	5	7	71%	22.51	7	9	78%	1
3	Atl	H	AVG	19.95	3	3	100%	27.84	9	10	90%	26.02	12	13	92%	1
4	Car	H	GOOD	21.30	2	3	67%	16.19	5	8	63%	17.58	7	11	64%	1
5	@Ari	A	AVG	23.55	1	1	100%	20.11	5	7	71%	20.54	6	8	75%	1
6	@TB	A	BAD	19.38	3	3	100%	23.86	11	11	100%	22.90	14	14	100%	1
7	Cle	H	BAD	-	-	-	0%	25.18	6	6	100%	25.18	6	6	100%	1
8	Pit	H	GOOD	-	-	-	0%	16.19	5	8	63%	16.19	5	8	63%	0
9	@Car	A	GOOD	20.68	1	2	50%	17.09	3	5	60%	18.12	4	7	57%	1
10	BYE
11	Sea	H	BAD	20.30	1	1	100%	25.18	6	6	100%	24.48	7	7	100%	1
12	@Dal	A	GOOD	16.70	1	1	100%	17.09	3	5	60%	17.03	4	6	67%	1
13	@Cin	A	GOOD	-	-	-	0%	17.09	3	5	60%	17.09	3	5	60%	1
14	StL	H	BAD	18.38	2	2	100%	25.18	6	6	100%	23.48	8	8	100%	1
15	@Bal	A	GOOD	-	-	-	0%	17.09	3	5	60%	17.09	3	5	60%	1
16	@Atl	A	AVG	27.30	3	3	100%	20.11	5	7	71%	22.27	8	10	80%	1
17	TB	H	BAD	20.73	3	3	100%	25.18	6	6	100%	23.70	9	9	100%	1
												330.57	109	135	81%	14

Questions or comments? Feel free to visit www.bigguyfantasysports.com or email me at bob@bigguyfantasysports.com and I’ll be more than happy to answer your questions.