Saturday, July 24, 2010

Drew Brees Profile by Bob Lung

The following article was written by Bob Lung who has written for Fanball.com and now runs his own site called www.bigguyfantasysports.com. He is a fantasy football veteran who has developed a unique system that eliminates much of the luck factor in fantasy football. This site will be featuring periodic guest posts by Bob. They are well worth your time. - Jon


DREW BREES – CONSISTENCY PROFILE

Drew Brees has been the overall fantasy points and consistency champ for the past two years combined. He and the New Orleans Saints offense certainly show no signs of slowing down in 2010.

3 YEAR HISTORY

Drew Brees is one of the few quarterbacks that I would ever consider drafting in the first round. The reason is obvious below based on Drew's three year rankings in both overall points and consistency rankings. He's never been out of the top four in overall points and has been in the top three the past two years in consistency.



Total FP

FPPG

RANK

QG

GP

QSR

RANK

Drew Brees

2007

322.60

20.16

4

12

16

75%

6


2008

371.35

23.21

1

14

16

88%

1


2009

353.70

23.58

2

13

15

87%

3

CONSISTENCY VERSUS DEFENSES

The highlighted are shows that maybe Drew Brees isn't the "Superman" that he looks in the overall numbers above. While Drew destroys the Average and Bad defenses in the NFL, he struggles with consistency versus the Good defenses, both at Home and Away. Now, before you bench against good defenses, remember that a Quality Game is earned at 17.03 fantasy points, so his average of 16.19 doesn't necessarily warrant a panic. He's a stud! You start him every week regardless. This just shows that he's human.


Good Defenses (Top 10)

Average Defenses

Bad Defenses (Bottom 10)

Total


FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

Home

16.19

5

8

63%

27.8

9

10

90%

25.18

6

6

100%

23.29

20

24

83%

Away

17.09

3

5

60%

20.1

5

7

71%

23.86

11

11

100%

21.25

19

23

83%













Total

22.29

39

47

83%

2010 HISTORICAL FORECAST

The forecast certainly shows a consistent year with 14 Quality Games Earned for an 88% Quality Success Rate (QSR). However, his 330.57 points puts him well below his 353.70 points last season. I'm sure the Saints will get a first place (i.e. tougher) schedule in 2010, but I'm still high on Brees and wouldn't hold back from drafting him as one of the top three quarterbacks in 2010. Now, that being said, you will see that I'm usually not a big fan of drafting a top quarterback, because I usually wait for better values in the fifth or sixth round after getting my two RB's and three WR's.





ACTUAL

LOCATION/DEFENSE

TOTAL

17.03

WEEK


H/A

DEF

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

QGE

1

Min

H

GOOD

18.10

1

1

100%

16.19

5

8

63%

16.40

6

9

67%

0

2

@SF

A

AVG

30.93

2

2

100%

20.11

5

7

71%

22.51

7

9

78%

1

3

Atl

H

AVG

19.95

3

3

100%

27.84

9

10

90%

26.02

12

13

92%

1

4

Car

H

GOOD

21.30

2

3

67%

16.19

5

8

63%

17.58

7

11

64%

1

5

@Ari

A

AVG

23.55

1

1

100%

20.11

5

7

71%

20.54

6

8

75%

1

6

@TB

A

BAD

19.38

3

3

100%

23.86

11

11

100%

22.90

14

14

100%

1

7

Cle

H

BAD

-

-

-

0%

25.18

6

6

100%

25.18

6

6

100%

1

8

Pit

H

GOOD

-

-

-

0%

16.19

5

8

63%

16.19

5

8

63%

0

9

@Car

A

GOOD

20.68

1

2

50%

17.09

3

5

60%

18.12

4

7

57%

1

10

BYE
















11

Sea

H

BAD

20.30

1

1

100%

25.18

6

6

100%

24.48

7

7

100%

1

12

@Dal

A

GOOD

16.70

1

1

100%

17.09

3

5

60%

17.03

4

6

67%

1

13

@Cin

A

GOOD

-

-

-

0%

17.09

3

5

60%

17.09

3

5

60%

1

14

StL

H

BAD

18.38

2

2

100%

25.18

6

6

100%

23.48

8

8

100%

1

15

@Bal

A

GOOD

-

-

-

0%

17.09

3

5

60%

17.09

3

5

60%

1

16

@Atl

A

AVG

27.30

3

3

100%

20.11

5

7

71%

22.27

8

10

80%

1

17

TB

H

BAD

20.73

3

3

100%

25.18

6

6

100%

23.70

9

9

100%

1






























330.57

109

135

81%

14

Questions or comments? Feel free to visit www.bigguyfantasysports.com or email me at bob@bigguyfantasysports.com and I’ll be more than happy to answer your questions.

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