Aaron Rogers Profile by Bob Lung

AARON RODGERS – CONSISTENCY PROFILE

Aaron Rodgers has made folks in Green Bay quickly forget about Brett Favre. He's also made fantasy owners quickly remember something Brett didn't have....consistency!

3 YEAR HISTORY

Without question, Rodgers has easily proven himself worthy to be included in the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks in both overall points and most importantly, in his consistency. He has ranked first and second in his first two FULL seasons as a starter and third and first in consistency rankings.

		Total FP	FPPG	RANK	QG	GP	QSR	RANK
Aaron Rodgers	2007	17.25	8.63	-	1	2	50%	-
	2008	342.60	21.41	2	13	16	81%	3
	2009	391.10	24.44	1	14	16	88%	1

CONSISTENCY VERSUS DEFENSES

Wow, talk about consistent consistency! Check out Rodger's Home and Away Quality Success Rate (QSR)! Both are exactly 82%! If there's a slight issue in his consistency, it's his Home vs Average defenses where he's only earning a 50% QSR. His fantasy points per game of 17.03 is right at the Quality Game Factor, but he does show inconsistency there. Keep an eye on those games this season.

	Good Defenses (Top 10)				Average Defenses				Bad Defenses (Bottom 10)				Total
	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR
Home	23.98	6	6	100%	17.03	3	6	50%	23.61	5	5	100%	21.42	14	17	82%
Away	20.54	4	6	67%	16.96	3	4	75%	28.03	7	7	100%	22.78	14	17	82%
												Total	22.10	28	34	82%

2010 HISTORICAL FORECAST

Aaron's historical forecast is not very bright for the 2010 season. His forecast of 317.74 points is way below his 391.10 points in 2009. A tougher schedule in 2010 certainly plays a huge part of this as Rodger's schedule has only two games versus a Bad defense (Lions) all season. He has nine games versus Average defenses (his worst scoring average) and five games versus a Good defense. While I still love Aaron Rodgers as a top tier quarterback, this supports my reason for choosing a better value in rounds five or six in your drafts this season.

				ACTUAL				LOCATION/DEFENSE				TOTAL				17.030
WEEK		H/A	DEF	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	FPG	QG	GP	QSR	QGE
1	@Phi	A	AVG	-	-	-	0%	16.96	3	4	75%	16.96	3	4	75%	0
2	Buf	H	AVG	-	-	-	0%	17.03	3	6	50%	17.03	3	6	50%	1
3	@Chi	A	AVG	13.40	1	2	50%	16.96	3	4	75%	15.77	4	6	67%	0
4	Det	H	BAD	26.05	2	2	100%	23.61	5	5	100%	24.31	7	7	100%	1
5	@Was	A	GOOD				0%	20.54	4	6	67%	20.54	4	6	67%	1
6	Mia	H	AVG				0%	17.03	3	6	50%	17.03	3	6	50%	1
7	Min	H	GOOD	27.00	2	2	100%	23.98	6	6	100%	24.74	8	8	100%	1
8	@NYJ	A	GOOD	-	-	-	0%	20.54	4	6	67%	20.54	4	6	67%	1
9	Dal	H	GOOD	27.22	2	2	100%	23.98	6	6	100%	24.79	8	8	100%	1
10	BYE
11	@Min	A	GOOD	17.00	1	2	50%	20.54	4	6	67%	19.66	5	8	63%	1
12	@Atl	A	AVG	27.05	1	1	100%	16.96	3	4	75%	18.98	4	5	80%	1
13	SF	H	AVG	26.50	1	1	100%	17.03	3	6	50%	18.38	4	7	57%	1
14	@Det	A	BAD	29.40	2	2	100%	28.03	7	7	100%	28.33	9	9	100%	1
15	@NE	A	AVG	-	-	-	0%	16.96	3	4	75%	16.96	3	4	75%	0
16	NYG	H	AVG	-	-	-	0%	17.03	3	6	50%	17.03	3	6	50%	1
17	Chi	H	AVG	16.17	1	2	50%	16.96	3	4	75%	16.70	4	6	67%	0
											Total	317.74	76	102	75%	12

Questions or comments? Feel free to visit www.bigguyfantasysports.com or email me at bob@bigguyfantasysports.com and I’ll be more than happy to answer your questions.