Monday, July 26, 2010

Aaron Rogers Profile by Bob Lung

AARON RODGERS – CONSISTENCY PROFILE

Aaron Rodgers has made folks in Green Bay quickly forget about Brett Favre. He's also made fantasy owners quickly remember something Brett didn't have....consistency!

3 YEAR HISTORY

Without question, Rodgers has easily proven himself worthy to be included in the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks in both overall points and most importantly, in his consistency. He has ranked first and second in his first two FULL seasons as a starter and third and first in consistency rankings.

Total FP

FPPG

RANK

QG

GP

QSR

RANK

Aaron Rodgers

2007

17.25

8.63

-

1

2

50%

-

2008

342.60

21.41

2

13

16

81%

3

2009

391.10

24.44

1

14

16

88%

1

CONSISTENCY VERSUS DEFENSES

Wow, talk about consistent consistency! Check out Rodger's Home and Away Quality Success Rate (QSR)! Both are exactly 82%! If there's a slight issue in his consistency, it's his Home vs Average defenses where he's only earning a 50% QSR. His fantasy points per game of 17.03 is right at the Quality Game Factor, but he does show inconsistency there. Keep an eye on those games this season.

Good Defenses (Top 10)

Average Defenses

Bad Defenses (Bottom 10)

Total

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

Home

23.98

6

6

100%

17.03

3

6

50%

23.61

5

5

100%

21.42

14

17

82%

Away

20.54

4

6

67%

16.96

3

4

75%

28.03

7

7

100%

22.78

14

17

82%

Total

22.10

28

34

82%

2010 HISTORICAL FORECAST

Aaron's historical forecast is not very bright for the 2010 season. His forecast of 317.74 points is way below his 391.10 points in 2009. A tougher schedule in 2010 certainly plays a huge part of this as Rodger's schedule has only two games versus a Bad defense (Lions) all season. He has nine games versus Average defenses (his worst scoring average) and five games versus a Good defense. While I still love Aaron Rodgers as a top tier quarterback, this supports my reason for choosing a better value in rounds five or six in your drafts this season.

ACTUAL

LOCATION/DEFENSE

TOTAL

17.030

WEEK

H/A

DEF

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

FPG

QG

GP

QSR

QGE

1

@Phi

A

AVG

-

-

-

0%

16.96

3

4

75%

16.96

3

4

75%

0

2

Buf

H

AVG

-

-

-

0%

17.03

3

6

50%

17.03

3

6

50%

1

3

@Chi

A

AVG

13.40

1

2

50%

16.96

3

4

75%

15.77

4

6

67%

0

4

Det

H

BAD

26.05

2

2

100%

23.61

5

5

100%

24.31

7

7

100%

1

5

@Was

A

GOOD

0%

20.54

4

6

67%

20.54

4

6

67%

1

6

Mia

H

AVG

0%

17.03

3

6

50%

17.03

3

6

50%

1

7

Min

H

GOOD

27.00

2

2

100%

23.98

6

6

100%

24.74

8

8

100%

1

8

@NYJ

A

GOOD

-

-

-

0%

20.54

4

6

67%

20.54

4

6

67%

1

9

Dal

H

GOOD

27.22

2

2

100%

23.98

6

6

100%

24.79

8

8

100%

1

10

BYE

11

@Min

A

GOOD

17.00

1

2

50%

20.54

4

6

67%

19.66

5

8

63%

1

12

@Atl

A

AVG

27.05

1

1

100%

16.96

3

4

75%

18.98

4

5

80%

1

13

SF

H

AVG

26.50

1

1

100%

17.03

3

6

50%

18.38

4

7

57%

1

14

@Det

A

BAD

29.40

2

2

100%

28.03

7

7

100%

28.33

9

9

100%

1

15

@NE

A

AVG

-

-

-

0%

16.96

3

4

75%

16.96

3

4

75%

0

16

NYG

H

AVG

-

-

-

0%

17.03

3

6

50%

17.03

3

6

50%

1

17

Chi

H

AVG

16.17

1

2

50%

16.96

3

4

75%

16.70

4

6

67%

0

Total

317.74

76

102

75%

12

Questions or comments? Feel free to visit www.bigguyfantasysports.com or email me at bob@bigguyfantasysports.com and I’ll be more than happy to answer your questions.



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