Friday, June 4, 2010

Quality Game Scores – 2009 Position Reviews Part One

The following article was written by Bob Lung who has written for Fanball.com and now runs his own site called www.bigguyfantasysports.com. He is a fantasy football veteran who has developed a unique system that eliminates much of the luck factor in fantasy football. This site will be featuring periodic guest posts by Bob. They are well worth your time.


- Jon


Wide Receiver Consistency Rankings

Among wide receivers, there were those players who were consistently good, just good and consistently bad. Our look at this position will consider both the expected and unexpected receiver performances in 2009. We will also speculate on potential wide receivers sleepers going into upcoming fantasy drafts.

So, let us start with the first tier of wide receivers ranked by their Quality Game Success Rate.


TIER ONE

Player Name

Total Points

Pts Rank

Total QG

Total GP

QG Success Rate

Larry Fitzgerald

187.20

5

12

16

75%

DeSean Jackson

189.40

4

11

15

73%

Wes Welker

162.40

12

10

14

71%

Miles Austin

197.80

3

11

16

69%


The top tier of consistent wide receivers for 2009 consists of wide receivers that had a 69% - 75 percent QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate). Only four receivers met our criteria during the 2009 season. That may seem like a very small group. However, in 2008 the top tier of wide receivers with a 69 percent or higher QGSR included six players.


Many fantasy players new to Quality Game Scores (i.e., consistency factor) expect the most consistent wide receivers to also lead the position in overall fantasy points. As you can see, they are not. Wes Welker ranked 12th overall, while the other three receivers ranked third, fourth and fifth. The top two overall receivers did not earn a Quality Game Score more than 70 percent of the time. The recent trend of teams spreading the ball around to multiple receivers (an effort to stop teams from double-teaming the studs) appears to be working for the real teams, but not the fantasy teams.


THE EXPECTED


Larry Fitzgerald was Mr. Consistency last season and won the award again this season.

Last year, however, Larry had an 88 percent QGSR, so while he maintained his top status, his consistency came back to the pack.


Wes Welker is one of those receivers that you always think of when you think consistency, right? Not exactly, in points-per-reception leagues Welker is indeed a stud. However, in non-PPR leagues in 2008, Welker earned just eight Quality games out of 16 for a sad 50% QGSR. However, in 2009, Welker became a consistent player even in non-PPR leagues and helped many teams to a fantasy championship.


THE UNEXPECTED


DeSean Jackson had a solid rookie season in 2008 with seven Quality Games and was one of my sleepers in 2009. However, I never expected Jackson to jump straight to the elite group and end up fourth for the season overall with a 73 percent QGSR. His QGSR in 2008 was just 44 percent.


The biggest surprise in the top tier is easily Miles Austin. In 2008, Austin was a fourth string receiver behind Terrell Owens, Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton. However, all of that changed this year, as Austin became Tony Romo’s favorite target. Miles proved he is a future star in the NFL. He will certainly be a top ten receiver in 2010, if not top five.

TIER TWO

Player Name

Total Points

Pts Rank

Total QG

Total GP

QG Success Rate

Andre Johnson

211.90

1

10

16

63%

Randy Moss

203.40

2

10

16

63%

Reggie Wayne

186.40

6

10

16

63%

Roddy White

181.50

7

10

16

63%

Sidney Rice

178.20

8

10

16

63%

Chad OchoCinco

159.90

14

10

16

63%

Santonio Holmes

155.40

15

10

16

63%

Derrick Mason

145.00

17

10

16

63%


THE EXPECTED


I find it amazing that eight wide receivers had the exact same QGSR of 63 percent. Beyond that, we finally see our No. 1 and No. 2 overall receivers in Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. We also expected Reggie Wayne and Roddy White to be at least in this tier, though Reggie Wayne is normally in the top tier.

The one name that you may not have expected is Derrick Mason. However, over the past three seasons only five other receivers have more Quality Games. He is a Quality Game value-pick every season.


THE UNEXPECTED


Chad OchoCinco talked a big talk as always last offseason and for once he backed it up with a fairly consistent year. I call it unexpected since Chad seemed to be on a downhill slide coming into the 2009 season. I am not sold this uphill trend will continue into next season.


Most analysts did not consider Sidney Rice to be the top Minnesota Vikings receiver prior to the 2009 season. It was supposed to be Bernard Berrian. Rice stepped up big time this year. He became Brett Favre’s favorite target early in the season and he never let up.


There were not many Santonio Holmes fans among fantasy owners a year ago. I was especially down on him for his lack of consistency. However unexpectedly, Holmes certainly stepped up and was as consistent as Andre Johnson, Moss and Wayne this season. If the Steelers maintain their passing game in 2010, he could continue this new trend of consistency.


TIER THREE

Player Name

Total Points

Pts Rank

Total QG

Total GP

QG Success Rate

Brandon Marshall

175.90

9

9

15

60%

Vincent Jackson

171.80

10

9

15

60%

Steve Smith (CAR)

142.40

19

9

15

60%

Calvin Johnson

133.70

21

8

14

57%

Steve Smith (NYG)

164.00

11

9

16

56%

Marques Colston

160.00

13

9

16

56%

Hines Ward

151.70

16

9

16

56%

Robert Meachem

133.40

22

8

16

50%

Mario Manningham

111.20

29

7

14

50%


Our last tier has a number of players expected to be top wide receivers. Now, some will look at the overall fantasy points for the year and see Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson at the ninth and tenth spots and say, “Hey, these guys were top 10 receivers.” That’s Ok, because I will tell you that their 60 percent QGSR didn’t help too many fantasy teams who drafted these two to be their top wide receiver options.


Marques Colston ended the season ranked 13th. Not bad, not what people expected out of a supposed future star of the NFL. Even worse was his 56 percent QGSR.


Two of the most disappointing stars in 2009 were Steve Smith (CAR) and Calvin Johnson. Their rankings of 19th and 21st made many fantasy owners suicidal at best.


The other Steve Smith (NYG) was actually a pleasant surprise at 11th overall. He was as inconsistent as these others were, but was drafted much lower and therefore his value may have exceeded his draft position.


Hines Ward, Robert Meacham and Mario Manningham all exceeded their draft position value in 2009 and I would expect Meacham to improve in 2010. I am not 100% sold on Manningham’s future and Hines Ward is certainly on the down slope of his career.


Well, that concludes the Quality Game consistency rankings for the wide receivers in 2009. If you did not make the playoffs and had Marques Colston or Calvin Johnson on your roster and did not understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.


If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email your questions to bob@bigguyfantasysports.com or just visit the website (www.bigguyfantasysports.com) and check out all of the great consistency analysis.

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